Unravelling the Complexities of Waterways, their representation and regulation
January 2026
Funded by the Strategic Research Council’s WAWE programme, the multidisciplinary WATERWAYS project examines the use of Baltic Sea maritime routes through the lens of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, developing research-based tools for up-to-date situational awareness, risk assessment and management, and cross-sectoral co-creation of sustainable future pathways.
In this blog post, researchers from Åbo Akademi University and the University of Helsinki focus on how Bayesian-network modelling can help connect maritime spatial planning and coherent regulation – supporting safer, more sustainable decision-making in a setting where multiple uses, impacts, and risks overlap.
“Conscious that the problems of ocean space are closely interrelated and need to be considered as a whole”
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982.
Waterways, navigable bodies of water inland, on the coast and offshore, connect our different home shores within the Baltic Sea, across the oceans and around the planet. As motorways and town roads of global shipping, waterways are the blood vessels of our global economy. But beyond that, they also provide for a richer texture of human, and non-human, life at sea. Waterways are key sources of renewable energy, food and fun. And, on its basis, the marine and freshwater ecosystems provide the foundation for many of these services we humans want from our waterways.
Unfortunately, these features, needs and interests around waterways are often in conflict with each other. The conflicts are intensified by the fact that the different uses of waterways have traditionally been governed by different, but parallel, sets of rules and laws. The Mariner, Windpower developer, Tourist, Fisherman, and even the fish itself, all share the same sea -but traditionally look at it from very different angles and follow different rules. In addition to such differences in perspective, waterways are shared by different countries with their own interests, laws and traditions.
Toward holistic governance: from UNCLOS to MSP
Already sixty years ago (Pardo 1967), if not earlier, there were ambitions to bridge the many gaps, and smoothen the international tensions, between the different parallel regulatory systems and interests around oceans, and thus also waterways. As a result of these early efforts the United Nations (UN) Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was adopted in 1982, based on the shared consciousness that “the problems of ocean space are closely interrelated and need to be considered as a whole” (UNCLOS 1982).
On a higher level of abstraction, the same spirit of integration (Spalding & Ycaza 2020) was brought forward by summits such as the Chapter 17 of the Agenda 21 adopted at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED 1992), outcome of the World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002 (paragraphs 30-36, WSSD 2002), and the 2015 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (UN 2015) (Spalding & Ycaza 2020). The same ethos is also behind the European Ocean Pact (2025), the most recent EU strategy on integrated ocean management.
As one way to achieve this holistic governance vision, the field of Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) emerged in the early 2000s on the foundation laid by spatial planning as well as Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). By carefully considering interactions between different uses and interests, MSP aims to encourage that the future use of marine areas, including waterways, will be coherent. Due to the many interrelated issues, new types of interdisciplinary research are needed to deliver knowledge useful in this holistic setting.
What WATERWAYS contributes: Bayesian networks across planning and law
Among our activities within the project WATERWAYS (2025-), we aim to contribute to these needs by exploring a specific disciplinary mix of the fields Bayesian network modelling, maritime spatial planning and maritime law. We have chosen the Bayesian network framework as it allows for a flexible combination of multiple sources of information, such as observations and prior knowledge, and for quantifying relations among variables, which combined can inform strategic decision-making processes (Kuikka et al., 1999).
Using Finnish Sea areas as a case study, we aim to develop simple Bayesian network models focused on maritime transportation and offshore wind energy to map cause-effect relations and understand the long-term impacts of human activities. Further, within this overall frame, we aim to explore how law and regulation of maritime accidents, including UNCLOS, could be incorporated to such a Bayesian model framework.
It is a non -trivial exercise to reliably deliver the kind of complex, systemic and interdisciplinary analyses needed to achieve the holistic and future oriented ambition of MSP or UNCLOS. In fact, the complexities and future orientation involved make waterways riddled with wicked problems (Rittel and Webber 1973) -or unclear problems based on complex social dynamics. This wickedness implies that solutions will to a large degree be dependent on political judgment based on subjective values.
Still, inter-, or transdisciplinary research becomes even more important in such a state of wickedness. It can form the backdrop, and may even facilitate, the creation of political consensus through stakeholder co-creation processes. In our work we aim to explore the use of Bayesian networks as boundary objects (Parviainen et al. 2022; Lehikoinen et al. 2025) via a WATERWAYS stakeholder pilot event to be carried out in 2026.
Hermanni Backer Johnsen
Senior Researcher
Åbo Akademi
Deborah Shinoda
Doctoral Researcher
University of Helsinki
References:
EU. 2025. The European Ocean Pact. COM(2025) 281. 26 pp. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52025DC0281
Lehikoinen, Annukka, Tapio Reinekoski, Nina Janasik, Marko Ahvenainen, and Janne I. Hukkinen. 2025. “Participatory Bayesian Networks for Uncovering Reflexive Unknowns in Strategic Environmental Risk Management.” Journal of Environmental Management 384 (June): 125373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125373.
Kuikka, S. et al. 1999. Modelling environmentally driven uncertainties in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) management by Bayesian influence diagrams. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56 (4): 629-641. https://doi.org/10.1139/f98-206
Pardo, Arvid. 1967. “Mr. Pardo, Malta.” UNGA 22nd session, First Committee 1515th Meeting, New York, NY, USA, November 1. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/pardo_ga1967.pdf.
Parviainen, T., S. Kuikka, and P. Haapasaari. 2022. “Enhancing Science-Policy Interface in Marine Environmental Governance: Oil Spill Response Models as Boundary Objects in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea.” Marine Policy 135 (January): 104863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104863.
Rittel, Horst, and Melvin Webber. 1973. “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning.” Policy Sciences 4 (2): 155–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01405730.
Spalding, Ana K. & Ycaza, Ricardo. 2020. Navigating Shifting Regimes of Ocean Governance: From UNCLOS to Sustainable Development Goal 14. Environment and Society vol 11 (1). pp.5-26.
UN 2015 Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development in Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. /A/RES/70/1
UNCED 1992. Agenda 21. United Nations Conference on Environment & Development. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3 to 14 June 1992.
UNCLOS. 1982. “UNCLOS: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.” https://www.unclos.org/
WSSD 2002. Annex: Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Report of the World Summit on Sustainable Development Johannesburg, South Africa, 26 August-4 September 2002. A/CONF.199/20